Florida’s chances for citizen-led gambling expansion are remote, but they aren’t dead yet. The state’s lawmakers may not be interested in amending the Constitution to allow online casinos or a competitive sports betting market, but for now, the possibility still exists for the people of the state to do it themselves.
Florida lawmakers canceled a special session at the end of January that would have discussed a bill to prohibit citizens from initiating ballot measures to amend the state constitution. The passage of such a bill would have made it impossible for Floridians to propose ballot initiatives and pass laws through a popular vote.
The Florida legislation’s 2025 regular session convenes on March 4, and the bill could become a topic of discussion.
The state has a compact with the Seminole Tribe of Florida, granting it exclusive gaming rights and prohibiting further gaming expansion. However, the ballot initiative process could allow the people of Florida to override those prohibitions by putting democracy into action.
Will ballot initiatives be discussed during 2025 FL legislative session?
Florida is one of 26 US states that allow some form of citizen-initiated ballot measure. These measures serve as a way for citizens to change state laws by voting, as opposed to the traditional path through the legislative process.
The 2025 legislative session will bring one of three outcomes on the topic, and two are favorable:
- A bill prohibiting citizens from initiating ballot measures is not discussed or introduced
- Such a bill does get introduced, but it does not pass
- A bill gets introduced and passed
Only the final option would result in Floridians losing the right to initiate a ballot measure.
In either of the first two cases, an interested party could initiate a ballot measure. The measure would need about 900,000 signatures to gain ballot access, based on Florida’s population. Then, it would need to receive a 60% majority at the polls to pass the amendment and make it state law.
Florida’s contentious gambling history
Florida state law solely permits gambling and gambling operations on tribal lands and pari-mutuel sites. It has seven tribal casinos, six operated by the Seminoles and one by the Miccosukee Tribe of Indians of Florida.
The law results from a 20-year compact enacted in 2010 between the Seminoles and the state passed in 2010. That compact prohibits further gambling expansion.
The Seminoles signed a new 30-year compact in April 2021 to legalize Florida sports betting. The compact installed a tribal online gambling model and granted the tribe a monopoly on the state’s sports betting market through the Hard Rock Bet app and retail sportsbooks. However, lawmakers added provisions in the compact to require an implementing bill for future online casino expansion.
Shortly after sports betting launched in late 2021, a lawsuit arose from West Flagler Associates, challenging the compact’s legal status. A back-and-forth legal battle concluded in June 2024 after the US Supreme Court denied West Flagler’s final appeal of a Florida Supreme Court ruling in favor of the compact.
In 2022, DraftKings and FanDuel attempted to legalize commercial mobile sports betting in Florida through a ballot initiative. The initiative never received enough support to gain ballot access.
Seminoles would protest gambling expansion
As it stands, the ballot initiative process provides Floridians a route to passing legislation without its lawmakers’ approval. Lawmakers have demonstrated no interest in gambling expansion to allow commercial casinos and only supported the sports betting compact with stipulations to prevent iGaming.
Given the Seminole Tribe’s influence and stronghold on gambling, it would undoubtedly protest any legal passage to expand the industry. Commercial gaming would immediately threaten its revenue, and it would argue that expansion violates the 2010 compact.
Of course, commercial casino operators would support the opportunity to expand into Florida. Florida is the third-most-populous state in the US and a top tourism destination, offering one of the most attractive untapped commercial casino markets nationwide.
To pass a ballot initiative, interested parties – which include President Donald Trump – would need to come together in some fashion, such as a political action committee, to gain enough public support. A similar effort proved successful in Missouri in 2024 to legalize sports betting after numerous failed legislative attempts.
Gov. Ron DeSantis has expressed a desire to end ballot initiatives, claiming they would allow out-of-state interests to influence state laws. However, lawmakers canceling the session shows that they don’t necessarily agree despite also not supporting gambling expansion.
What will happen when the session convenes in a month? We’ll have to wait and see.