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For any player in the NFL, the annual MVP trophy is the most sought-after individual award. It recognizes the most valuable player in the league that season and is one of the most prestigious honors in the sport. This means that it’s also a huge betting market, as bettors aim to predict who will win the award.
The odds for the NFL MVP award are available nearly all year and will shift depending on what happens within the league. Odds for the upcoming season usually come out a few days after the Super Bowl and will continue to move throughout the offseason as players change teams. During the year, the odds will shift to represent how each player is performing.
The dominant trend in MVP winners is that the majority of them play quarterback. Quarterbacks get most of the attention from the media and are the most important position, so it makes sense that they would win the award most of the time. However, because of this, the odds on position players are usually quite good and can reward a smart bet very well.
Here’s a guide to betting on the NFL MVP award in Florida. From a few tips on how to pick a winner to an education in the skills and jargon you will need to know, continue reading for a comprehensive guide.
NFL MVP odds 2021
How to read NFL MVP odds
Looking at the MVP odds table above, you can see that all the top players have a number beside their name. These are the odds associated with a bet on that player, the most important number that a bettor must consider when placing a bet. Betting odds for the NFL MVP race will appear in the American format, which is the most common option in the United States.
Until late in the season when there may be heavy favorites for the MVP award, you’ll mostly see positive NFL odds for this market (marked by a + sign).
For a positive number, the odds represent how much you would win from a $100 bet. For example, betting on Tom Brady at odds of +150 means that you could bet $100 to win $150, returning a total of $250.
If the number is negative, it represents how much you would need to wager to win $100. Because of the nature of the large field for the MVP award, negative odds usually only appear late in the season. For example, if he’s a favorite to win the award, you could bet $150 on Patrick Mahomes at odds of -150, winning $100 for a total return of $250.
Betting on NFL MVP futures in Florida
Major sportsbooks in Florida will create and release odds for a betting market like the NFL MVP. Smaller sportsbooks might then use those lines to help inform themselves and their betting markets. Sportsbooks create the lines through a combination of computer programs and veterans of the industry with plenty of experience.
Because there is so much money on the line for these sportsbooks, they are very careful when creating the lines. Sportsbooks will also have NFL betting rules that you should be aware of before placing your bet.
For example, if you bet on a player and then that player gets injured and never plays a game, many sportsbooks would count that bet as void because your selection never played a snap. Depending on the specific sportsbook, this rule may be different, so be sure to check before you place your bet.
As far as timing your bet on the NFL MVP, there are advantages and disadvantages to betting early or late. If you make your bet early, say before the season has started, the odds are likely to be higher as it’s very difficult to predict something that far into the future. However, because of the nature of the NFL, it’s very hard to find winners at this time.
Betting later in the season means that you will have more information to make a better bet. However, the odds are going to be lower, as sportsbooks will have access to that same information. In addition, any selections that have received heavy wagering will see their NFL MVP betting odds drop. Thus, if your selection is a popular one, it may be a good idea to bet earlier.
Who chooses the NFL MVP?
The Associated Press currently presents the NFL MVP. While there have been other NFL MVP awards from other voting bodies in the past, the one that is currently recognized as the most prestigious is the one that the Associated Press hands out. This award is the one that is revealed at the NFL Honors awards ceremony live on television.
A panel of fifty sportswriters who all follow the NFL closely pick the award. Included in these media members are a few former players who have transitioned to covering the game instead of playing it. All the panel members will vote to decide the winner. One thing to note about the voting for this award is that it happens after the regular season. This means that while we found out who won around when the Super Bowl happens, voters have only the regular season to vote on.
While the AP has presented an award for the most valuable player since the early days of the NFL — 1957 to be exact — the name of the award has changed slightly over the years. This has led to some discussion over if the early iterations of the award should officially count for records and other milestones.
How often is there a repeat winner?
While it is a difficult award to win multiple times, the NFL MVP award has seen many repeat winners. This is because when a generational talent arrives in the league, he often will be prolific enough in multiple seasons to win the award more than once. When you add in the fact that voters usually like to see team success alongside individual success, it makes sense that a star in a dynasty could win the award multiple times.
Nine players have won the award more than once. Of those nine, six of them have won the award at least three times. As a non-offensive player has won the award only three times in NFL history, all the repeat winners have been offensive players, and prolific ones at that.
Peyton Manning has the most NFL MVP awards of any player ever, with five wins over his career with the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos. Manning also won in back-to-back years twice, once in 2003-04 and again in 2008-09.
While the best of the best may win the award a few times, it’s hard to win the award in back-to-back seasons. This may be because of voter fatigue, a phenomenon where the voters find it hard to continue to vote for the same person. In addition, media narratives often play a role in determining the winner. Thus, players who have not won the award before may see their chances get better as the football world declares that they’re “due.”
Past NFL MVP winners
Here is a breakdown of the six most recent winners of the NFL MVP award and what team they played for:
|2020||Aaron Rodgers||Green Bay Packers|
|2019||Lamar Jackson||Baltimore Ravens|
|2018||Patrick Mahomes||Kansas City Chiefs|
|2017||Tom Brady||New England Patriots|
|2016||Matt Ryan||Atlanta Falcons|
|2015||Can Newton||Carolins Panthers|
NFL MVP data and trends
Before making your bet, you’re going to want to examine the data and trends so that you can make an informed decision. By looking at the past winners of the award, we can try to extract some info that might help us predict who could win the award in the future.
The first major trend to look at is the positions that win the award. As mentioned above, only three times has the award gone to a majority non-offensive player. Two defensive players have won the award and one kicker. With the modern game moving even more toward the offensive side of the ball, that trend is unlikely to slow down anytime soon.
On the offensive side of the ball, it’s quarterbacks who get the majority of the awards. There have been 57 undisputed winners, and of those, 38 have been quarterbacks and 14 have been running backs. Once again, with more and more teams using a committee at running back, it seems as if even more of the winners are becoming quarterbacks. Since 2007, every winner except for one has been a quarterback.
Another trend that bettors may want to take note of is the fact that MVP winners generally come from strong teams. Even if a player has a spectacular individual season, he is unlikely to win the MVP award if his team struggles. Thus, when making a bet on a player to win the NFL MVP, you cannot just look at a player as an individual. Instead, you also need to make sure that the player you want to pick plays for a team that will be near the top of the standings.
Another trend that is important to consider is that players who win this award tend to have great counting stats. The traditional stats that you might find in a box score or on the back of a football card are still the ones that are most important when discussing a player’s MVP candidacy. However, as advanced stats become more common in football, we are starting to see them help players win the award.
Still, at this point, it’s most important for quarterbacks to put up good stats in terms of touchdowns, yards and limiting interceptions. These are the main statistical categories that voters pay attention to and that are often quoted in the media as being important. For other offensive positions, it’s also yards and touchdowns that will help lead to MVP trophies.
Another aspect that may not gain very much consideration is the celebrity of the player and the size of the market. These are non-football factors that may contribute to a player winning an MVP award. For example, the big-name quarterbacks are going to have a better chance at winning the award. Just look at Tom Brady and his legion of fans to see how celebrity can help your narrative.
Players for teams that are popular across the country may also get a slight advantage. The reality of the situation is that certain small-market teams don’t get the same publicity and thus their players don’t receive the same level of excitement and hype.
NFL MVPs from Florida
Emmitt Smith, who won the award in 1993 as a running back on the Dallas Cowboys, was born in Pensacola, Florida. He’s one of the most prolific rushers of all time as he dominated the 1990s with one of the best teams the Dallas Cowboys have ever assembled.
Smith holds many records related to rushing, as he showed impressive longevity throughout his career. He has the most career rushing yards as well as most career rushing touchdowns. His career lasted an astonishing 15 seasons, incredible for a running back.
In terms of players on teams that are located in Florida, Dan Marino won the award in 1984 while playing for the Miami Dolphins. He quarterbacked the team and put up impressive passing numbers, especially when they are adjusted for the era that he played in. While Marino did put up great numbers that season, he couldn’t get the Dolphins to win the big game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Jacksonville Jaguars have yet to have a player win the award while playing with them. Check out the Dolphins odds, Buccaneers odds and Jaguars odds for MVP player via the links.
Other fun NFL futures bets
Besides betting on the NFL MVP award, there are plenty more NFL futures bets that football fans can play. For those who enjoy betting on players, some futures bets work on an individual level. For those who enjoy picking teams, some futures bets work on a team level.
Futures are one of the most popular types of NFL bets. The long period between the bet being placed and finding out if you’ve won means that it can provide excitement throughout an entire season. These bets can also reward bettors very well if they happen to make a few shrewd picks. Check out the top sportsbooks like DraftKings and HardRock Sportsbook to see what futures bets are available.
Here are some of the other futures bets that you might consider placing for the NFL season: