Share 
Macquarie now expects prediction market taker volume to reach $187 billion in 2026, a slight cut from its prior $190 billion forecast but still well above an earlier $169 billion estimate.
The firm said that figure would represent 8.5x growth from last year’s $22 billion in taker volume. In a report cited by Casino.org, analyst Chad Beynon also said DraftKings and FanDuel are gaining traction in the category even as their current availability remains limited.
Sports remain the main engine of growth
Macquarie said total industry prediction market volume hit $20.1 billion in September, up 1,079% year over year. On the largest prediction market, sports event contracts accounted for 79% of September volume.
The report also said one operator controlled 63% of sports event contract volume in September, underscoring how concentrated the market still is.
Beynon wrote that sports should remain the biggest contributor to volume growth through the rest of the year, while the 2026 U.S. midterm election cycle is likely to bring a meaningful increase in political-event trading activity.
DraftKings and FanDuel are showing early share gains
According to Macquarie, DraftKings and FanDuel held about 4% and 3% of sports event contract volume in September, respectively. During Week 4 of the NFL season, they accounted for 11% and 7% of prediction market app downloads.
Beynon said that download data suggests both brands are still under-monetized in the segment and could gain share if geographic availability expands and product awareness improves.
That caveat matters. Macquarie said DraftKings and FanDuel are still constrained by state-level limitations and do not offer sports derivatives in the states where they book online sports wagers.
For players, the main takeaway is that prediction markets remain a fast-growing but still evolving part of the broader gambling landscape. Sports contracts are driving most of the activity today, while future growth could depend on how availability changes and whether more operators can expand access responsibly.
What to watch next
The key near-term signals are whether DraftKings and FanDuel can convert download interest into more meaningful market share, and whether sports continues to dominate volume into year-end. Beyond that, Macquarie sees the 2026 midterm cycle as the next major catalyst for political-event trading activity.
—
Source: As reported by Todd Shriber.
