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Prediction market prices tracked by DeFi Rate on Oct. 12 showed Democrats favored to win both chambers of Congress, with the site listing a 62% chance for Senate control and a 90% chance for the House based on quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket.
The same snapshot, frozen at 3:12 PM ET, also showed a 19% market-implied chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Oct. 28 and posted updated Super Bowl LXI prices led by the Los Angeles Rams at 12%.
Congress and 2028 markets leaned Democratic
DeFi Rate’s page aggregates prediction-market prices from Kalshi, Polymarket and, in some sports markets, Polymarket US.
For Congress, the snapshot showed Democrats at 62% to win the Senate and 90% to win the House. Republicans were listed at 10% to keep both chambers.
On longer-range political markets, Democrats were shown at 61% to win the 2028 presidential election. In the Republican nomination market, JD Vance was listed at 45%.
The page also included two 2026 Senate race contracts from Kalshi, with Democrats shown at 74% in Alaska and 67% in Michigan.
Fed contract pointed to low odds of an October hike
The Fed-focused market on the page showed a 19% chance of a rate hike on Oct. 28, based on an equal-weight average of Kalshi and Polymarket last-traded prices.
Separately, the snapshot listed an 18% probability from Kalshi’s rate-level market for an October hike.
For readers following prediction markets rather than traditional polling or analyst forecasts, the page offers a point-in-time read on how these venues were pricing major political and macro events as of the afternoon update.
Super Bowl LXI prices had Rams, Bills and Ravens at the top of this snapshot
Among the NFL futures shown, the Rams led the listed teams at 12% to win Super Bowl LXI. The Buffalo Bills followed at 10%, and the Baltimore Ravens were at 8%.
DeFi Rate said those sports figures were drawn from Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. The page also linked to source records and CSV history files for readers who want to compare changes over time.
As with any prediction-market snapshot, these figures reflect prices observed at a specific moment and can move after the page is published.
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Source: As reported by defirate.com.
