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ProphetX has self-certified prediction markets tied to the 2026 Circa Survivor Pool in Nevada, according to a report by Deadspin. The filings were originally made on Oct. 15 and would allow yes-or-no contracts based on outcomes connected to the Circa Sports contest.
At the time reviewed by Deadspin early Monday, no Circa-linked event contracts were visible on ProphetX. Under the self-certification process, ProphetX can technically activate those markets one business day after filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
What the filings cover
The reported contracts are tied to the 2026 Circa Sports Survivor Pro Football Contest, a Nevada-licensed sports wagering game that requires in-person registration at a Circa Sportsbook kiosk in Nevada. Players can purchase multiple $1,000 entries and try to survive all 20 legs of the 2026 NFL regular season by selecting one winning team each week.
The contest advertises a guaranteed $20 million prize pool, and Deadspin reported that buy-ins go directly to the final payout because the event has no rake.
Circa says it is not affiliated
Circa owner Derek Stevens told CNN senior reporter Marshall Cohen that Circa has "no affiliation" with the prediction markets tied to its survivor contest. He also said he has a "strong opposition" to prediction markets and referred to them as "thieves," according to the report.
Stevens additionally said he does not plan to take legal action against ProphetX. Deadspin reported that ProphetX is not officially partnered with Circa Sports and is not compensating Circa for use of the contest branding.
Why this matters
The filing adds to a broader clash between prediction market operators and state gambling regulators. Deadspin noted that the Nevada Gaming Control Board is already involved in legal battles over prediction markets, a dispute that has led both ProphetX and Kalshi to restrict sports contracts within Nevada.
For players, the immediate takeaway is limited: the reported contracts had been self-certified, but they were not visible on ProphetX at the time of review. What comes next will likely depend on whether those markets go live and whether regulators take further action.
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Source: As reported by David Huber.
