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A Reuters/Ipsos survey found that 60% of Americans oppose betting on election results through prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, a sign of growing public discomfort as those markets face closer scrutiny ahead of the midterms.
The poll, conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, surveyed 4,506 people and carried a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points. Just 13% of respondents said they support election-result betting, while 24% were unsure and 3% skipped the question.
Opposition crossed party lines
According to the survey, opposition was not limited to one political group. Reuters reported that 61% of Republicans opposed betting on election outcomes, along with nearly 70% of Democrats.
The results suggest resistance to election wagering is broader than a typical partisan split. The article also noted that prediction markets grew in popularity during the 2024 presidential election, but are now drawing more attention from policymakers and industry observers.
Why prediction markets are drawing scrutiny
The debate centers on whether markets tied to election outcomes should be treated differently from other forms of event-based trading or wagering. Concerns cited in the report included corruption, insider trading and market manipulation.
CDC Gaming, as referenced in the source report, highlighted those risks, while Decision Desk HQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley described election betting as the "wild west."
Kalshi pushed back on the survey findings, calling the poll "biased" and suggesting that leading questions influenced the outcome. A Polymarket spokesperson said prediction markets provide unbiased information and are gaining recognition for their public value.
For players and market watchers, the immediate takeaway is that election betting remains under pressure from both public opinion and the ongoing policy debate. What comes next will likely depend on whether policymakers move from scrutiny to specific regulatory proposals.
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Source: As reported by wiod.iheart.com.
