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Kalshi and Polymarket are both pricing Ashley Moody as a heavy favorite in Florida’s 2026 Senate special election, with each market putting her above 90% as of the latest update.
Action Network reported Oct. 7 that Polymarket had Moody at 91% to hold the seat, while Kalshi priced her at 90.1%. The same report said Angie Nixon’s contracts had slipped on both platforms, even as Nixon continued pressing Moody over a statewide debate and the Hope Florida Medicaid transfer issue.
Prediction markets and polls are pointing in the same direction
According to the report, Moody’s lead widened this week on both boards. Polymarket priced Nixon at 10¢, while Kalshi had her at 9.9¢.
The market view is broadly consistent with public polling cited in the story. RealClearPolitics’ average of recent surveys showed Moody ahead by high single digits, roughly in the 7- to 9-point range. The article also noted that a September St. Pete Polls survey that showed a much tighter race appeared to be an outlier against the broader polling trend.
For readers who follow event contracts, that alignment between polling averages and market pricing is the main takeaway: both indicators in this update favored Moody, not a late-breaking toss-up.
What could still move the Florida market before Election Day
The report pointed to campaign developments that could still draw attention before voting ends. Moody has so far declined to debate Nixon on statewide television, while Nixon has publicly challenged her to do so before mail ballots were sent and has repeated calls for Moody’s resignation over the Hope Florida Medicaid transfer.
The next fixed dates are already on the calendar. Florida’s voter registration deadline passed on Oct. 5. Early voting runs from Oct. 24 through Oct. 31, ahead of the Nov. 3 special election.
The winner will serve the remainder of Marco Rubio’s term through January 2029.
For anyone tracking Florida political prediction markets, the next catalysts are straightforward: any new polling, any change on a televised debate, and how pricing reacts as early voting approaches.
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Source: As reported by Zach Parkes.
