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Regulated sportsbooks are still expected to dominate NFL betting this season, but prediction markets are taking a larger share of football wagering activity than they did a year ago.
According to figures cited by CNBC from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, the full NFL season could generate about $40 billion in U.S. wagering activity across legal wagers and event contracts. Of that total, regulated sportsbooks are projected to account for about $31.7 billion, or roughly 80% of the market, while prediction markets are estimated at the equivalent of $8.4 billion, or 21% of the combined market.
Prediction platforms are growing quickly during football season
The report said football contract volume across selected exchanges reached 2.94 billion contracts from Sept. 1 through Sept. 14, nearly four times the comparable period last year.
App-download data also pointed to rising consumer interest during kickoff week. Polymarket recorded 755,000 U.S. downloads, compared with 602,000 for Kalshi, according to the report.
Chris Grove of Eilers & Krejcik Gaming said prediction markets are “growing the overall market — at least for now,” but added that more direct competition with sportsbooks could emerge by the time the NFL season reaches the Super Bowl.
Sportsbooks still lead, but operators are watching for pressure
Even with that growth, the CNBC report said major sportsbook operators have not yet reported major business losses tied to prediction markets.
DraftKings and FanDuel have both launched prediction products and have said any drag on handle growth has been in the low single digits at most. Rush Street Interactive reported no discernible impact, while BetMGM described the effect as more meaningful.
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming also expects parlays to remain central to sportsbook economics this season, estimating they will make up more than 40% of regulated NFL handle and potentially about 75% of sportsbook NFL revenue.
That matters because prediction markets may be expanding access in places where traditional sports betting remains illegal or commercially unavailable, while sportsbooks still retain the scale, product depth, and revenue mix that currently define the market.
What to watch next
Piper Sandler said combination contracts now make up the majority of Kalshi’s volume. On the latest reported day, total volume across the eight exchanges it tracks reached about $2.48 billion, led by Kalshi at $1.93 billion and Polymarket at $403.6 million.
For bettors, the key question over the rest of football season is whether prediction-market growth continues to expand the overall audience or starts taking more share directly from sportsbook handle as competition intensifies.
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Source: As reported by cnbc.com.
