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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued another warning to prediction-market operators over how they file event contracts, telling exchanges that broad, template-style self-certifications are not acceptable.
In its latest advisory, the agency said registered exchanges must provide product-level detail for each contract they plan to list, including the contract terms, settlement method, data sources and compliance analysis. The CFTC said a single filing should not be used to cover an open-ended set of possible contract variations.
The notice does not end the self-certification path for designated contract markets. Instead, it clarifies that the route remains available only when filings satisfy the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC rules.
This is the second warning the agency has issued this year on prediction-market compliance, following an earlier advisory on March 12. According to the source report, the latest notice was dated July 24, just ahead of the July 27 deadline for public comments on proposed amendments to Rule 40.11.
What the CFTC is proposing
The proposed Rule 40.11 changes would create a three-step process for certain event contracts tied to activities named in the Commodity Exchange Act, including unlawful conduct, terrorism, assassination, war and gaming. The proposal would also define “gaming,” clarify the meaning of “involve” and structure the existing 90-day review period.
That matters because prediction markets have expanded rapidly. The source report said trading volume across CFTC-registered prediction markets exceeded $25 billion in 2025. It also cited testimony saying daily listings on one large platform climbed from about 1,600 in April 2025 to roughly 162,000 in April 2026.
Kalshi and Polymarket were among the operators referenced in the report, though the CFTC advisory, as summarized, did not identify which exchanges submitted the broad certifications.
What players should watch
For users of prediction markets, the immediate takeaway is procedural rather than operational: the CFTC is signaling closer attention to how event contracts are filed and reviewed, especially where gaming-related markets may be involved. Key open questions include whether the agency takes action against any platform and how the Rule 40.11 proposal is finalized.
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Source: As reported by crypto.news.
