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Kalshi says it will not offer markets on whether the U.S. Supreme Court hears or decides New Jersey’s case over sports event contracts, drawing a clear line around one of the biggest legal fights facing U.S. prediction markets.
The stance stands out because New Jersey is asking the Supreme Court to review the dispute involving Kalshi and sports prediction markets, a case that could shape how event contracts are treated nationwide. As cited in the source report, a Kalshi spokesperson told _Barron’s_ the platform will not offer a market on whether the Court takes the case or on the eventual ruling.
Kalshi draws a boundary as the case moves toward SCOTUS
According to the source report, Polymarket’s international site does allow trading on when the Supreme Court will take the case. The article notes that site is not regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and technically does not serve Americans.
The legal and regulatory pressure around prediction markets is widening beyond the New Jersey petition. The report says a Michigan Circuit Court granted the state a preliminary injunction requiring Kalshi to block sports event contracts from Michigan. It also says Kalshi could face a daily fine of $500,000 if it fails to comply.
Another date to watch is Sept. 14, when the CFTC is scheduled to hold a roundtable on prediction markets with representatives from 16 Tribal organizations, according to the source article.
Lobbying and sports ties show the industry keeps expanding
Even with the legal uncertainty, the report describes a sector that is still growing quickly. It cites reporting that Kalshi now has more than two dozen federal lobbyists working on its behalf.
The same article says the NBA is widely expected to have prediction-market deals in place by the time the season tips off, with “deal terms on the table,” according to Front Office Sports. It also reports that officials at several combined ATP and WTA tournaments have received interest from prediction-market companies.
Volume figures in the report point to the scale of the market. Kalshi handled $1.57 billion in volume on Wednesday, Sept. 2, with 28.1% from sports markets, 51.1% from parlays, and 17.9% from crypto markets.
For players and observers, the immediate takeaway is straightforward: the core legal fight is moving forward, but at least for now Kalshi says it will not turn that Supreme Court process itself into a tradable market. The next major signposts are whether the Court agrees to hear New Jersey’s petition and what comes out of the CFTC’s Sept. 14 roundtable.
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Source: As reported by Dustin Gouker and Eric Ramsey.
