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Prediction market newsletter author Sam Schwartz says the race behind market leader Kalshi is still wide open, with ProphetX and Novig among the operators trying to gain ground in a CFTC-regulated space that remains unsettled for both companies and bettors.
In a Q&A with _Gambling Insider_, Schwartz discussed his path from investment banking and ProphetX to launching _The PM Pulse_, a Substack newsletter focused on prediction markets. He also laid out his view of the current market structure, the regulatory outlook, and why recent tax changes have made him step away from traditional sportsbooks.
Schwartz sees Kalshi as the clear market leader
Schwartz said Kalshi currently controls roughly 85% to 90% of the CFTC-regulated prediction market space. In his view, the bigger competitive question is who claims the No. 2 position.
He said Kalshi announced in January 2025 that it was self-certifying sports event contracts, while ProphetX and Novig were approved by the CFTC in 2025 as DCMs and DCOs. Schwartz joined ProphetX as an operations associate in June 2025 after first using the platform earlier that year.
He told _Gambling Insider_ that ProphetX’s 3% commission on net winnings per market gave it better pricing than DraftKings or FanDuel, and said the company launched a beta version of its RFQ parlay product in early fall 2025.
Schwartz also pointed to a broader wave of industry dealmaking, citing acquisitions involving DraftKings, Robinhood, Susquehanna, Fanatics, Railbird, Rothera, and BGC Group as signs that consolidation is likely to remain part of the story.
Newsletter launch follows his exit from ProphetX
Schwartz left HSBC in June 2024, joined ProphetX in June 2025, and later departed in April 2026. He launched _The PM Pulse_ on July 14, 2026.
According to Schwartz, his main source for tracking prediction market news is X. He has also started a companion Spotlight interview series, with Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky featured in the first installment on July 21, 2026.
What bettors should watch next
Schwartz said prediction markets could eventually face Supreme Court review, possibly in the summer of 2028, and added that he gives a “slight edge” to prediction markets over traditional sportsbooks in that kind of legal test.
He also said he is finished with traditional sportsbooks, citing a new tax rule that took effect on January 1, 2026. The interview notes that repeal efforts are underway, but does not detail the rule itself.
For players, the near-term takeaway is less about a single product launch and more about structure: market share, CFTC oversight, and legal uncertainty are still shaping how prediction platforms and sportsbooks compete. As always, gamble responsibly.
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Source: As reported by gamblinginsider.com.
