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Kalshi now lists Michael Carbonara as the slight favorite to win the Republican primary in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, giving him a 54% chance, according to Casinobeats. The shift comes as Carbonara’s campaign financing remains under scrutiny for its use of cryptocurrency gains and payments to his former company, Ibanera.
Carbonara, a candidate in the South Florida race, said he used cryptocurrency as one way to generate campaign funds. According to the report, he invested about $95,000 in Ethereum in June last year, and the holding was worth $170,000 two months later. That produced roughly $75,000 in profit, which the article says was put into the campaign.
Crypto profits and campaign filings face questions
The report says Carbonara has disclosed $6 million in campaign investments, but that figure may have been counted twice in filings — once when placed into assets and again when withdrawn to fund the campaign — citing the Miami Herald. If accurate, that would make the headline fundraising number less straightforward than it first appears.
Carbonara defended the broader approach, telling the Miami Herald: “Campaigns do invest in the stock market, they invest in treasury bills, and it’s not uncommon for campaigns to generate passive revenue or income based on the idle cash sitting there.”
Ibanera payments add another layer of scrutiny
Casinobeats also reported that Carbonara used his former company, Ibanera, to process transactions. His campaign paid at least $21,000 in investment fees to Ibanera across 16 transactions, including about $8,600 before he stepped down as CEO last October.
The article notes that election law can allow a candidate to use their own company if the product is necessary and bought at fair market value. Still, Ibanera has faced lawsuits tied to withheld cross-border payments from banks in the Bahamas and the UAE, and Carbonara was personally named in a separate Michigan lawsuit connected to noise from a cryptocurrency data-mining center near schools.
What the Kalshi odds show
For prediction market users, the Florida race is notable because Kalshi has moved from favoring Belinda Keiser to pricing Carbonara as the current Republican frontrunner. Keiser reportedly entered the race in June with a 68% chance before slipping behind Carbonara and David Burck.
The same report says Republicans are now favored to win the seat overall, with that probability rising from 24% in April to 64% currently. On the Democratic side, Pia Dandiya is listed with a 95% chance of winning her primary.
The story also highlights Kalshi’s stance on election integrity on its platform: candidate Kyle Langford was fined $2,000 and banned for five years after wagering on himself to win on Kalshi.
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Source: As reported by Adam Roarty.
