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Bernstein says Robinhood’s prediction market business could become a much larger part of the company over the next few years, with revenue reaching $1.7 billion by 2028.
In a new note, analyst Gautam Chhugani reiterated an outperform rating on Robinhood and raised his price target to $160 from $130. According to the report, Robinhood’s prediction market revenue is projected to grow at a 64% annual rate through 2028.
That forecast matters because Bernstein also said Robinhood’s prediction market revenue could exceed its cryptocurrency business in the second quarter. Robinhood is scheduled to report quarterly results on July 29.
Robinhood has described event contracts as one of its fastest-growing segments, and the Bernstein note pointed to strong activity tied to the World Cup. The company said it would route some World Cup trades through Rothera, including some Major League Baseball contracts.
As of July 10, Rothera had processed $3 billion in World Cup event contracts. Bernstein estimated that since the platform went live in May, it has handled more than 3.5 billion event contracts overall, with the World Cup making up 93% of that total.
The note also said Rothera accounted for 16% of Robinhood’s overall prediction market volume.
By the numbers
- $1.7 billion: Bernstein’s 2028 revenue forecast for Robinhood’s prediction market business
- 64%: Forecast annual growth rate through 2028
- $3 billion: World Cup event contracts processed by Rothera as of July 10
- 3.5 billion: Estimated event contracts handled by Rothera since launch
- 16%: Share of Robinhood’s overall prediction market volume attributed to Rothera
- 27%: Share of regulated U.S. sports betting the article said the World Cup has commanded since it began last month
For readers tracking prediction markets, the key next date is July 29, when Robinhood reports earnings and may provide a clearer picture of how large the event-contract business has become relative to crypto and other segments.
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Source: As reported by casino.org.
