Share 
ForecastEx has filed paperwork with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for a new contract tied to annual prediction market trading volume, adding a fresh sign that the fast-growing sector is starting to generate products based on its own expansion.
The proposed market, called the Prediction Market Annual Volume Forecast Contract, would settle based on aggregate notional trading volume executed in prediction market contracts listed on eligible CFTC-regulated designated contract markets. ForecastEx said non-prediction-market products would be excluded from the calculation. As of Thursday night, the market had not yet appeared on ForecastEx.
ForecastEx filing points to a new way to track prediction market growth
According to the filing, ForecastEx would "aggregate the trading volumes across CFTC-regulated prediction market exchanges" and use published daily notional volume data to determine final settlement.
The idea could give traders a way to hedge or speculate on the future size of the prediction market industry itself, rather than betting on a single political, economic, or sports outcome.
The filing also highlights participation limits. Under ForecastEx Rule 509(h), people with material non-public information, employees of the source agency, and decisionmakers with influence over the contract outcome are barred from participating. That could raise practical questions if the final settlement depends on volume generated by prediction market operators and venues.
DraftKings, Polymarket and Kalshi show the category’s momentum
The filing arrives as other operators continue to post growth signals.
Polymarket said it became an official prediction market partner of the New York Yankees, with branding set to appear on Yankee Stadium signage for the rest of the 2026 MLB season.
DraftKings, meanwhile, told investors its Super App is now live nationwide and that its Predictions product is growing faster than expected. CEO Jason Robins said more than 600,000 customers have engaged with Predictions this year, and the company said there is only about 1% customer overlap between its Sportsbook and the largest prediction market operator in sportsbook states.
In second-quarter materials, DraftKings reported Sports Consumer Volume of $13.1 billion for the three months ended June 30, up 15% year over year.
Kalshi also continued to post large volume. For Wednesday, Aug. 5, the article cited $1.29 billion in volume, with sports and parlays accounting for 77.8% and crypto markets making up 19.5%.
What to watch next
The biggest immediate question is whether ForecastEx will actually list the new contract. It is also still unclear which exchanges would be included in the final settlement calculation and how any trading restrictions would be applied in practice.
For players and industry watchers, the broader takeaway is straightforward: prediction markets are moving deeper into the mainstream of U.S. gambling-adjacent and event-trading markets, but regulation and enforcement remain central to what comes next.
—
Source: As reported by Dustin Gouker.
